Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $150 held · ends Oct 28

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$149.65

Combined PnL

-$14.88

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$148.29

Total Shares178

Combined PnL+$4.46

No2 traders

Total Value$1.36

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$19.34

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 8.1¢	$12.02	$118.67	+$4.63	60% 1580-1035 (2615)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 50.8¢	$32.13	$29.62	-$0.17	28% 280-738 (1018)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 27.5¢	$22.69	$0.81	-$18.74	57% 13102-9987 (23089)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$1.15	$0.56	-$0.59	58% 5757-4225 (9982)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$12.02

Value

$118.67

PnL

+$4.63

Record

60%

1580-1035 (2615)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.13

Value

$29.62

PnL

-$0.17

Record

28%

280-738 (1018)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$22.69

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$18.74

Record

57%

13102-9987 (23089)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.59

Record

58%

5757-4225 (9982)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.