Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $259 held · ends Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$259.26

Combined PnL

$23.86

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 99.3¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$239.62

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$25.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$19.65

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$2.01

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 86.9¢	$103.69	$112.14	+$8.81	55% 205-167 (372)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 90¢	$66.8	$69.79	+$3	61% 20465-12833 (33298)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$28.68	$36.53	+$7.85	36% 14490-25940 (40430)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 89.9¢	$112.62	$21.15	+$6.21	57% 12861-9776 (22637)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$19.44	$19.65	-$2.01	61% 1506-947 (2453)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$103.69

Value

$112.14

PnL

+$8.81

Record

55%

205-167 (372)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$66.8

Value

$69.79

PnL

+$3

Record

61%

20465-12833 (33298)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$28.68

Value

$36.53

PnL

+$7.85

Record

36%

14490-25940 (40430)

ghorrock

Invested

$112.62

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$6.21

Record

57%

12861-9776 (22637)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.44

Value

$19.65

PnL

-$2.01

Record

61%

1506-947 (2453)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.