Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 9°C on November 9?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 18¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 9

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$243.23

Combined PnL

$27.77

Smart Money Entry

26.3¢ → 18¢

-32% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$195.04

Total Shares764

Combined PnL+$4.81

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.2

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$22.96

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$15.66	$44.25	+$28.59	14% 9500-60813 (70313)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 16.4¢	$18.06	$28.65	+$10.59	46% 6894-8147 (15041)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 33.3¢	$46.95	$27.95	-$9.94	47% 47421-53861 (101282)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$22.25	$27.78	+$5.53	46% 6186-7387 (13573)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 17.4¢	$19.35	$26.7	+$7.35	30% 2854-6545 (9399)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$26.48	$26.24	-$0.24	46% 6636-7775 (14411)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$23.7	$14.12	+$1.12	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 25.1¢	$14.9	$12.75	-$2.14	43% 5570-7251 (12821)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$33.2	$7.2	-$26	61% 726-458 (1184)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$5.37	$7.19	+$1.82	69% 16764-7367 (24131)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$5.46	$6.15	+$0.69	50% 9322-9369 (18691)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$8.37	$5.89	-$2.49	25% 2364-7035 (9399)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$2.3	$3.87	+$13.94	52% 8997-8175 (17172)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$7.49	$2.43	+$2.37	22% 3396-11845 (15241)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$0.85	$1.08	+$0.22	23% 8560-28980 (37540)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.63	$0.98	-$3.65	53% 5077-4432 (9509)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$28.59

Record

14%

9500-60813 (70313)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$18.06

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$10.59

Record

46%

6894-8147 (15041)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$46.95

Value

$27.95

PnL

-$9.94

Record

47%

47421-53861 (101282)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.25

Value

$27.78

PnL

+$5.53

Record

46%

6186-7387 (13573)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$19.35

Value

$26.7

PnL

+$7.35

Record

30%

2854-6545 (9399)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$26.48

Value

$26.24

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

6636-7775 (14411)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.7

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$1.12

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$2.14

Record

43%

5570-7251 (12821)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$26

Record

61%

726-458 (1184)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$5.37

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$1.82

Record

69%

16764-7367 (24131)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$5.46

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

9322-9369 (18691)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$8.37

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$2.49

Record

25%

2364-7035 (9399)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$13.94

Record

52%

8997-8175 (17172)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.49

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$2.37

Record

22%

3396-11845 (15241)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.22

Record

23%

8560-28980 (37540)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$3.65

Record

53%

5077-4432 (9509)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.