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NoNoYesYes
balthazar<$100NoNo
Lucerys<$100NoNo
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 8°C on November 9?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
No 50%
Total Value
$29.19
Combined PnL
-$32.63
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No6 traders
Total Value$29.19
Total Shares29
Combined PnL+$1.17
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares390
Combined PnL-$33.79
No — 75%Yes — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $25.19 | $25.19 | +$0.86 | 57% 25537-19073 (44610) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $3.69 | $4 | +$0.31 | 30% 2958-6851 (9809) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $19.25 | — | -$19.25 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.55 | — | -$14.55 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35523-84044 (119567) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 657-2370 (3027) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 66284-66816 (133100) |
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$25.19
Value
$25.19
PnL
+$0.86
Record
57%
25537-19073 (44610)
12
123987456<$100Invested
$3.69
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.31
Record
30%
2958-6851 (9809)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$19.25
Value
—
PnL
-$19.25
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$14.55
Value
—
PnL
-$14.55
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35523-84044 (119567)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
657-2370 (3027)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
66284-66816 (133100)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfb04324c...38a8d9
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-november-9-2026-8c