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YesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
Lucerys<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 7°C on November 9?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$34.29
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares395
Combined PnL-$34.29
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $19.25 | — | -$19.25 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.55 | — | -$14.55 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.49 | 22% 657-2370 (3027) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35523-84044 (119567) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$19.25
Value
—
PnL
-$19.25
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$14.55
Value
—
PnL
-$14.55
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.49
Record
22%
657-2370 (3027)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35523-84044 (119567)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc8bd430c...23d76b
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-november-9-2026-7c