Back to Markets
NoYesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C or higher on November 9?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 75%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$35.13
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$0.16
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares406
Combined PnL-$35.29
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.8¢ | $99.84 | $100 | +$0.16 | 97% 59786-1869 (61655) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $19.25 | — | -$19.25 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $15.55 | — | -$15.55 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.49 | 22% 657-2370 (3027) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35523-84044 (119567) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$99.84
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.16
Record
97%
59786-1869 (61655)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$19.25
Value
—
PnL
-$19.25
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$15.55
Value
—
PnL
-$15.55
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.49
Record
22%
657-2370 (3027)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35523-84044 (119567)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
Chat
Market Info
Condition ID
0x0828317d...cf2d81
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-november-9-2026-15corhigher