Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$201.6
-$4.08
57.3¢ → 58¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $113.95 | $107.28 | -$6.67 | 57% 903-691 (1594) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $53.41 | $54.39 | +$0.98 | 25% 2354-7013 (9367) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $17.69 | $18.18 | +$0.49 | 53% 5069-4422 (9491) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $8.2 | $8.9 | +$0.7 | 61% 725-457 (1182) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $8.74 | $8.74 | +$0 | 43% 18503-24146 (42649) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $3.69 | $4.11 | +$0.42 | 13% 675-4577 (5252) |
Invested
$113.95
Value
$107.28
PnL
-$6.67
Record
57%
903-691 (1594)
Invested
$53.41
Value
$54.39
PnL
+$0.98
Record
25%
2354-7013 (9367)
Invested
$17.69
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
5069-4422 (9491)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$8.9
PnL
+$0.7
Record
61%
725-457 (1182)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.74
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18503-24146 (42649)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$3.69
Value
$4.11
PnL
+$0.42
Record
13%
675-4577 (5252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.