Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 2?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 1.7¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 2

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$163.71

Combined PnL

-$36.3

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$154.99

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$20.29

No9 traders

Total Value$8.72

Total Shares291

Combined PnL-$56.59

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 29¢	$64	$106.09	+$39.89	55% 548-442 (990)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 97.9¢	$22.15	$15.8	-$6.35	42% 644-895 (1539)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 97.9¢	$20.46	$15.26	-$5.2	39% 529-813 (1342)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 97.9¢	$19.55	$12.55	-$7	39% 678-1048 (1726)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$6.33	$5.28	-$1.05	53% 7309-6449 (13758)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$36.73	$4.1	-$32.63	50% 2020-1992 (4012)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 18.2¢	$13.24	$1.4	-$3.44	57% 16444-12573 (29017)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 11.8¢	$4.8	$0.71	-$4.09	45% 908-1127 (2035)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 13.3¢	$5.09	$0.67	-$4.42	50% 1539-1570 (3109)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$1.89	$0.45	-$1.44	42% 1337-1819 (3156)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$4.38	$0.39	-$3.99	41% 603-866 (1469)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$3.65	$0.38	-$3.27	57% 3693-2731 (6424)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.8	$0.35	-$1.45	42% 707-967 (1674)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$2.14	$0.27	-$1.87	51% 1277-1234 (2511)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$106.09

PnL

+$39.89

Record

55%

548-442 (990)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.15

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$6.35

Record

42%

644-895 (1539)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.46

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$5.2

Record

39%

529-813 (1342)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.55

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$7

Record

39%

678-1048 (1726)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.33

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

7309-6449 (13758)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$36.73

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$32.63

Record

50%

2020-1992 (4012)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.24

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$3.44

Record

57%

16444-12573 (29017)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$4.09

Record

45%

908-1127 (2035)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$4.42

Record

50%

1539-1570 (3109)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.44

Record

42%

1337-1819 (3156)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$3.99

Record

41%

603-866 (1469)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$3.27

Record

57%

3693-2731 (6424)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$1.45

Record

42%

707-967 (1674)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$1.87

Record

51%

1277-1234 (2511)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3431.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

3531.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.