Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$108.44

Combined PnL

$0.32

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$108.4

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$2.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$2.26

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$79.61	$81.92	+$2.31	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.99	$10.23	+$0.24	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.87	$5.87	-$0	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.86	$2.86	+$0	57% 800-608 (1408)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.5	$2.53	+$0.03	98% 1504-23 (1527)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.85	$0.02	-$0.83	30% 251-582 (833)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.1	46% 3003-3542 (6545)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.42	$0.01	-$1.33	24% 752-2355 (3107)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$79.61

Value

$81.92

PnL

+$2.31

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.87

Value

$5.87

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.83

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

3003-3542 (6545)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.33

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.