Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 15?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $241 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$241.07

Combined PnL

$12.69

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 98.8¢

+5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$241.07

Total Shares243

Combined PnL+$12.69

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95¢	$90.28	$94.05	+$3.77	42% 754-1062 (1816)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$51.28	$36.68	+$5.27	30% 251-582 (833)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$25.73	$28.63	+$2.91	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$21	$21.12	+$0.12	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$20.48	$20.86	+$0.38	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$17.26	$17.26	+$0	47% 852-950 (1802)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.86	$5.12	+$0.26	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.07	$5.07	+$0	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.95	+$0	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.85	$4.85	+$0	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	98% 1504-23 (1527)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$90.28

Value

$94.05

PnL

+$3.77

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$36.68

PnL

+$5.27

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.73

Value

$28.63

PnL

+$2.91

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.48

Value

$20.86

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$17.26

Value

$17.26

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.26

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.