Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 77¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 15

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$79.13

Combined PnL

-$3.59

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$75.73

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$1.49

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.4

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$5.08

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$26.99	$26.79	-$0.21	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.86	$14.78	-$3.08	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$10.69	$13.82	+$3.13	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$20.53	$10.44	+$1.8	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.55	+$0.1	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.56	$4.46	-$0.1	59% 827-567 (1394)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$30.07	$2.55	-$7.52	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 91¢	$1.05	$0.89	-$0.16	51% 818-797 (1615)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.75	$0.45	+$1.79	24% 752-2355 (3107)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.76	$0.4	+$0.65	35% 3858-7089 (10947)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.99

Value

$26.79

PnL

-$0.21

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$17.86

Value

$14.78

PnL

-$3.08

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$13.82

PnL

+$3.13

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.53

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.07

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$7.52

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.75

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$1.79

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.76

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.65

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.