Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$130.7

Combined PnL

-$26.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$115.34

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$9.62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.36

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$36.25

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82¢	$67.49	$73.5	+$6.02	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$18.94	$20.33	+$1.39	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 84¢	$9.42	$10.66	+$1.24	57% 800-608 (1408)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$67.66	$9.12	-$32.69	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$33.29	$6.06	-$4.86	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$4.61	$4.77	+$0.17	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.96	$4.76	+$0.8	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95¢	$1.31	$1.31	+$0	52% 865-790 (1655)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.98	$0.18	+$1.3	24% 752-2355 (3107)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$67.49

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$6.02

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$18.94

Value

$20.33

PnL

+$1.39

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.42

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$1.24

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.66

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$32.69

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.29

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$4.86

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.98

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$1.3

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.