Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 13°C on November 15?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$169.83
$6.12
96.8¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $64.63 | $42.91 | +$2.88 | 53% 2122-1900 (4022) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $38.08 | $39.96 | +$1.88 | 42% 754-1062 (1816) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $33.31 | $33.34 | +$0.03 | 49% 877-897 (1774) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.14 | $15.17 | +$0.04 | 59% 827-567 (1394) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $13.92 | $15.03 | +$1.11 | 71% 917-377 (1294) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.87 | $5.87 | +$0 | 51% 901-849 (1750) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.11 | $5.11 | +$0 | 57% 800-608 (1408) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 33% 80-164 (244) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | +$0 | 52% 865-790 (1655) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $2.5 | $2.54 | +$0.04 | 98% 1504-23 (1527) |
Invested
$64.63
Value
$42.91
PnL
+$2.88
Record
53%
2122-1900 (4022)
Invested
$38.08
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$1.88
Record
42%
754-1062 (1816)
Invested
$33.31
Value
$33.34
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
877-897 (1774)
Invested
$15.14
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
827-567 (1394)
Invested
$13.92
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$1.11
Record
71%
917-377 (1294)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
901-849 (1750)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
800-608 (1408)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
33%
80-164 (244)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
865-790 (1655)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.54
PnL
+$0.04
Record
98%
1504-23 (1527)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ghorrock
No — $42.91
241532532432
No — $39.96
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $33.34
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $15.17
Poligarch
No — $15.03
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $5.87
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $5.11
123987456
No — $5
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $4.9
1DVSBSTD
No — $2.54