Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$245.2

Combined PnL

-$9.68

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$240.93

Total Shares242

Combined PnL+$2.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.27

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$12.29

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$83.84	$83.8	-$0.04	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$55.65	$55.6	-$0.04	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$30.33	$30.39	+$0.06	58% 684-501 (1185)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$31.84	$29.85	+$2.47	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$23.98	$24.03	+$0.05	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$6.14	$6.15	+$0.01	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$6.07	$6.12	+$0.05	49% 736-769 (1505)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.95	$4.99	+$0.05	48% 762-815 (1577)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$72.67	$2.17	+$0.49	40% 625-948 (1573)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$14.88	$2.1	-$12.78	56% 2269-1817 (4086)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$83.84

Value

$83.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$55.65

Value

$55.6

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$30.33

Value

$30.39

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.84

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$2.47

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$23.98

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.67

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.49

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.88

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$12.78

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.