Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $154 held · ends Nov 14

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$154.24

Combined PnL

$12.57

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 93.3¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$118.84

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$6.34

Yes6 traders

Total Value$35.4

Total Shares355

Combined PnL+$6.22

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$54.05	$52.42	-$1.62	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$22.83	$25.39	+$2.55	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 67¢	$13.47	$18.89	+$5.43	31% 146-327 (473)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 28.4¢	$193.37	$17.03	+$7.64	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94¢	$15.21	$15.21	+$0	48% 762-815 (1577)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$142.94	$11.86	+$2.87	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94¢	$5.8	$5.8	-$0	58% 684-501 (1185)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.9¢	$4.17	$2.82	-$1.35	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$2.78	$2.17	-$0.61	41% 37-54 (91)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.65	$1.32	-$0.78	27% 673-1791 (2464)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95¢	$1.14	$1.13	-$0.01	58% 703-504 (1207)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$20.21	$0.2	-$1.56	72% 829-328 (1157)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$54.05

Value

$52.42

PnL

-$1.62

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$22.83

Value

$25.39

PnL

+$2.55

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$13.47

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$5.43

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$193.37

Value

$17.03

PnL

+$7.64

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.21

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.94

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$2.87

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$1.35

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$0.61

Record

41%

37-54 (91)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.65

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.78

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.21

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.56

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.6%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.