Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (94%). 13 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 14?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 5.6¢ · $23 held · ends Nov 14

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$23.26

Combined PnL

$57.56

Smart Money Entry

38.2¢ → 5.6¢

-85% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$22.32

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$57.61

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.94

Total Shares1

Combined PnL-$0.04

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 62.6¢	$130.62	$10.44	-$120.18	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$60.21	$2.76	-$15.67	40% 625-948 (1573)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 27.1¢	$26.58	$1.87	-$7.66	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$1.63	$1.73	+$0.1	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 8.2¢	$2.8	$1.71	-$1.08	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$6	$1.45	+$205.52	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$0.98	$0.94	-$0.04	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 2.5¢	$0.29	$0.56	+$0.28	51% 746-711 (1457)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.15	$0.38	-$2.78	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.29	$0.36	+$0.07	49% 736-769 (1505)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.25	$0.31	+$0.06	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.61	$0.25	-$0.36	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.25	-$0.35	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.25	-$0.35	48% 762-815 (1577)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$130.62

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$120.18

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$60.21

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$15.67

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$26.58

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$7.66

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$1.08

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$205.52

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$2.78

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1447.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.