Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $41 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$41.16

Combined PnL

-$45.23

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$15.01

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$1.36

Yes7 traders

Total Value$26.15

Total Shares872

Combined PnL-$46.59

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83¢	$7.64	$9.01	+$1.36	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26	$8.58	-$17.42	63% 720-431 (1151)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.01	$6.93	-$14.08	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$6	$6	+$0	51% 748-722 (1470)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$11.44	$4.16	-$7.28	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$24.27	$4.14	-$3.26	40% 633-964 (1597)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.88	$1.28	-$2.6	27% 679-1844 (2523)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.64	$0.9	-$1.65	29% 3170-7895 (11065)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$0.47	$0.15	-$0.32	72% 841-329 (1170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.64

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$1.36

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$17.42

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.01

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$14.08

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.44

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$7.28

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.27

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$3.26

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.88

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$2.6

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.64

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$1.65

Record

29%

3170-7895 (11065)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.32

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.