Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $396 held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$396.3

Combined PnL

$12.38

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 97.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$392.98

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$17.8

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.3

Total Shares132

Combined PnL-$5.42

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93.1¢	$353.89	$371.26	+$17.37	37% 464-794 (1258)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98¢	$6.67	$6.65	-$0.02	58% 546-400 (946)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.41	$5.39	-$0.02	46% 592-707 (1299)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.8	$4.79	-$0.01	43% 903-1214 (2117)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$107.62	$2.66	-$6.77	61% 2173-1396 (3569)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 809-8 (817)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78¢	$6.85	$2.39	+$0.48	54% 1043-906 (1949)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$18.97	$0.63	+$1.35	13% 50-326 (376)

241532532432

Invested

$353.89

Value

$371.26

PnL

+$17.37

Record

37%

464-794 (1258)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

546-400 (946)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

592-707 (1299)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.01

Record

43%

903-1214 (2117)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.62

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$6.77

Record

61%

2173-1396 (3569)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

809-8 (817)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.97

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$1.35

Record

13%

50-326 (376)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.