Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on November 13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 27¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 13

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$74.83

Combined PnL

$11.54

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$65.13

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$11.6

No3 traders

Total Value$9.46

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$60.03	$36.13	-$4.9	35% 414-754 (1168)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.82	$27	+$17.18	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75¢	$5.11	$5.01	-$0.1	45% 522-645 (1167)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.68	$3.6	-$0.07	47% 526-596 (1122)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$10.01	$1.56	-$0.7	76% 675-216 (891)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 65¢	$0.74	$0.86	+$0.11	12% 37-271 (308)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$0.42	$0.44	+$0.02	53% 933-821 (1754)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.03

Value

$36.13

PnL

-$4.9

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.82

Value

$27

PnL

+$17.18

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

522-645 (1167)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

526-596 (1122)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.01

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.7

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.86

PnL

+$0.11

Record

12%

37-271 (308)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.