Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 13?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 38¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 13

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$295.63

Combined PnL

$60.58

Smart Money Entry

25.4¢ → 37.5¢

+48% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$262.62

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$63.77

No5 traders

Total Value$32.7

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$3.19

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$154.78	$207.35	+$52.57	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$44.07	$55.28	+$11.21	35% 414-754 (1168)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$17.7	$15.63	-$2.07	12% 37-271 (308)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$10.57	$9.31	-$1.26	53% 933-821 (1754)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.64	$3.59	-$0.06	42% 840-1166 (2006)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$3.26	$3.19	-$0.07	48% 512-557 (1069)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 66¢	$4.24	$0.99	+$0.27	76% 675-216 (891)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$154.78

Value

$207.35

PnL

+$52.57

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.07

Value

$55.28

PnL

+$11.21

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$2.07

Record

12%

37-271 (308)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.57

Value

$9.31

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

840-1166 (2006)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

512-557 (1069)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.24

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.27

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.