Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 13°C on November 13?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $361 held · ends Nov 13

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$361.44

Combined PnL

$146.3

Smart Money Entry

12.5¢ → 21.4¢

+71% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$311.57

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL+$143.75

No5 traders

Total Value$49.87

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$2.55

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 12.4¢	$100.76	$202.41	+$101.65	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 12.5¢	$63.41	$103.88	+$40.47	37% 467-800 (1267)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$14.62	$15.1	+$0.48	48% 583-621 (1204)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$15.28	$14.66	-$0.62	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$8.62	$7.82	-$0.8	48% 560-595 (1155)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$15.63	$7.18	+$4.02	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$5.64	$5.11	-$0.53	47% 590-673 (1263)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$7.67	$2.86	+$0.69	74% 721-251 (972)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.48	$1.32	+$0.84	13% 51-350 (401)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1	$1.09	+$0.09	65% 4210-2230 (6440)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$100.76

Value

$202.41

PnL

+$101.65

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$63.41

Value

$103.88

PnL

+$40.47

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.62

Value

$15.1

PnL

+$0.48

Record

48%

583-621 (1204)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.28

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.62

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

560-595 (1155)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.63

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$4.02

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.53

Record

47%

590-673 (1263)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.67

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.69

Record

74%

721-251 (972)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.84

Record

13%

51-350 (401)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.09

Record

65%

4210-2230 (6440)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.3%

21.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$328.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

428.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.