Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 12°C or below on November 13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 90¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 13

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$248.72

Combined PnL

$79.65

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 89.6¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$145.54

Total Shares1,108

Combined PnL+$86.57

No4 traders

Total Value$103.06

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$6.92

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$60.34	$110.55	+$50.21	60% 2190-1463 (3653)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$82.42	$66.61	-$4.26	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$129.42	$25.4	+$27.73	37% 482-817 (1299)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$18.18	$17.46	-$0.72	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$11.69	$10.25	-$1.45	59% 564-393 (957)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.96	$9.59	+$8.62	13% 54-364 (418)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$9.24	$8.75	-$0.5	61% 577-374 (951)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$110.55

PnL

+$50.21

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82.42

Value

$66.61

PnL

-$4.26

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$129.42

Value

$25.4

PnL

+$27.73

Record

37%

482-817 (1299)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.18

Value

$17.46

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.69

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$1.45

Record

59%

564-393 (957)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$8.62

Record

13%

54-364 (418)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$0.5

Record

61%

577-374 (951)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.