Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $168 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$168.05

Combined PnL

-$10.32

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$167.8

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$10.05

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.8¢	$119.68	$119.8	+$0.12	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.58	$20.55	-$0.03	47% 484-554 (1038)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.38	$10.24	-$0.02	65% 444-243 (687)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.73	$9.99	-$0.33	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.09	$6.08	-$0.01	43% 802-1042 (1844)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.14	$1.14	-$0	68% 442-211 (653)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.26	$0.23	-$10.03	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.02	55% 729-596 (1325)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$119.68

Value

$119.8

PnL

+$0.12

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$20.58

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$22.38

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.02

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$13.73

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0.33

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.01

Record

43%

802-1042 (1844)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

442-211 (653)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.26

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$10.03

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.