Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$190.74
$0.37
99.4¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $98.81 | $99 | +$0.19 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $35.4 | $35.47 | +$0.07 | 53% 5758-5142 (10900) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.84 | $29.88 | +$0.04 | 28% 108-284 (392) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $20.08 | $20.16 | +$0.08 | 29% 883-2138 (3021) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $3.74 | $3.74 | +$0 | 31% 2830-6233 (9063) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.49 | -$0.01 | 99% 340-2 (342) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$98.81
Value
$99
PnL
+$0.19
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$35.4
Value
$35.47
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
5758-5142 (10900)
Invested
$29.84
Value
$29.88
PnL
+$0.04
Record
28%
108-284 (392)
Invested
$20.08
Value
$20.16
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
883-2138 (3021)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.74
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2830-6233 (9063)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.49
PnL
-$0.01
Record
99%
340-2 (342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.