Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $118 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$117.85
-$4.99
95¢ → 90.9¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $48.73 | $45.67 | -$3.06 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $27.96 | $27.08 | -$0.89 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $22.43 | $21.37 | -$1.06 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $10.5 | $10.15 | -$0.34 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $4.59 | $4.51 | -$0.07 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $3.38 | $3.61 | +$0.23 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $3.64 | $3.45 | -$0.19 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $1.62 | $2.02 | +$0.4 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$48.73
Value
$45.67
PnL
-$3.06
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$27.96
Value
$27.08
PnL
-$0.89
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Invested
$22.43
Value
$21.37
PnL
-$1.06
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.15
PnL
-$0.34
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.51
PnL
-$0.07
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$0.23
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.19
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$0.4
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.