Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 70¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$58.47
$0.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $20.59 | $20.88 | +$0.29 | 69% 2060-946 (3006) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $17.75 | $17.88 | +$0.13 | 36% 3038-5350 (8388) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $6.99 | $7.1 | +$0.11 | 28% 214-553 (767) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.4¢ | $6.34 | $6.39 | +$0.05 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $3.29 | $3.54 | +$0.25 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $2.75 | $2.68 | -$0.07 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
Invested
$20.59
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$0.29
Record
69%
2060-946 (3006)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.75
Value
$17.88
PnL
+$0.13
Record
36%
3038-5350 (8388)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$0.11
Record
28%
214-553 (767)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$6.39
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.54
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0.07
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.