Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 48¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$184.39
$4.88
46.8¢ → 47.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.4¢ | $88.41 | $91.53 | +$3.12 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 45.7¢ | $65.79 | $69.94 | +$4.15 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.1¢ | $13.43 | $12.05 | -$1.39 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $9.98 | $9.16 | -$0.82 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.6¢ | $1.9 | $1.72 | -$0.18 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Invested
$88.41
Value
$91.53
PnL
+$3.12
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$65.79
Value
$69.94
PnL
+$4.15
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$13.43
Value
$12.05
PnL
-$1.39
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.16
PnL
-$0.82
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.18
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.