Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$76.19
$6.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $37.08 | $38.21 | +$1.13 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $17.92 | $16.98 | -$0.94 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $10.48 | $16.92 | +$6.44 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $2.96 | $3.19 | +$0.23 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $0.9 | -$0 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.08
Value
$38.21
PnL
+$1.13
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$17.92
Value
$16.98
PnL
-$0.94
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$10.48
Value
$16.92
PnL
+$6.44
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$0.23
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.