Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$176.31
-$0.09
98.9¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $98.28 | $98.16 | -$0.12 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.7 | +$0 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $20.02 | $19.99 | -$0.03 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.76 | $19.8 | +$0.04 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.95 | +$0 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $3.7 | $3.71 | +$0.02 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$98.28
Value
$98.16
PnL
-$0.12
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$20.02
Value
$19.99
PnL
-$0.03
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$19.76
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.71
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.