Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $24 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$23.57
-$24.35
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.98 | +$0.02 | 53% 5995-5369 (11364) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.26 | $0.06 | -$10.2 | 65% 2122-1162 (3284) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.65 | $0.01 | -$1.23 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.64 | $0.01 | -$1.62 | 39% 1379-2181 (3560) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $99.87 | $0 | -$9.5 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5995-5369 (11364)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.2
Record
65%
2122-1162 (3284)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.23
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.62
Record
39%
1379-2181 (3560)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$99.87
Value
$0
PnL
-$9.5
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.