Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 11?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$285.89
$4.42
98.1¢ → 99.6¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $84.04 | $86.74 | +$2.7 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $69.25 | $69.78 | +$0.53 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $63.28 | $63.93 | +$0.65 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $18.07 | $18.52 | +$0.44 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $18.28 | $18.38 | +$0.09 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.05 | $14.03 | -$0.02 | 41% 324-472 (796) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $6.97 | $6.98 | +$0.01 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.02 | $5.02 | -$0.01 | 42% 321-439 (760) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.53 | +$0.03 | 99% 212-1 (213) |
Invested
$84.04
Value
$86.74
PnL
+$2.7
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.25
Value
$69.78
PnL
+$0.53
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$63.28
Value
$63.93
PnL
+$0.65
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$18.07
Value
$18.52
PnL
+$0.44
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$18.28
Value
$18.38
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$14.05
Value
$14.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
41%
324-472 (796)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$6.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
321-439 (760)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
212-1 (213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $86.74
balthazar
No — $69.78
Lucerys
No — $63.93
qwen300.fund
No — $18.52
ghorrock
No — $18.38
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $14.03
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271
No — $6.98
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.02
1DVSBSTD
No — $2.53