Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 11?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $455 held · ends Nov 11

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$455.07

Combined PnL

$15.58

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 91¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$295.96

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$15.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$154.41	$159.11	+$4.7	30% 246-584 (830)
└ No leg	Noavg 86.9¢	$113.86	$104.8	-$9.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.9¢	$40.55	$54.31	+$13.76
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$84.44	$87.91	+$3.47	69% 2062-948 (3010)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$54.3	$62.3	+$8	50% 4584-4495 (9079)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$55.28	$57.07	+$1.79	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$37.3	$18.69	-$0.89	54% 401-336 (737)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89¢	$17.8	$17.8	-$0	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79¢	$14.22	$16.02	+$1.8	82% 516-115 (631)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$15.29	$15.7	+$0.41	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.01	$8.72	-$0.29	42% 321-439 (760)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 73¢	$5.11	$6.23	+$1.12	51% 80-78 (158)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.45	+$0.25	39% 1250-1994 (3244)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 90¢	$1.15	$1.08	-$0.08	41% 324-472 (796)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$154.41

Value

$159.11

PnL

+$4.7

Record

30%

246-584 (830)

Both legs:

No$113.8686.9¢-$9.06

Yes$40.5514.9¢+$13.76

hello.67<$100

Invested

$84.44

Value

$87.91

PnL

+$3.47

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$54.3

Value

$62.3

PnL

+$8

Record

50%

4584-4495 (9079)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$55.28

Value

$57.07

PnL

+$1.79

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.3

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$0.89

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$1.8

Record

82%

516-115 (631)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$0.41

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$8.72

PnL

-$0.29

Record

42%

321-439 (760)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$1.12

Record

51%

80-78 (158)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

1250-1994 (3244)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

41%

324-472 (796)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.