Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 11?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 93¢ · $419 held · ends Nov 11

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$419.38

Combined PnL

$46

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 92.5¢

+121% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$178.3

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$24.08

Yes5 traders

Total Value$95.8

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$21.92

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 82% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 49.9¢	$140.95	$145.29	+$4.33	30% 256-590 (846)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.9¢	$91.65	$97.35	+$5.7
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$49.31	$47.94	-$1.37
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$29.79	$43	+$13.21	48% 307-339 (646)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 48¢	$24.46	$33.41	+$8.95	46% 317-371 (688)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 56.3¢	$25.92	$33.25	+$7.33	68% 2062-949 (3011)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$40.66	$30.6	-$10.06	51% 4598-4501 (9099)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$11.79	$24.45	+$12.66	41% 342-497 (839)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 46¢	$18.05	$15.03	-$3.02	81% 525-121 (646)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 48.9¢	$15.6	$14.86	-$0.75	42% 338-475 (813)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.8¢	$11.44	$13.88	+$2.44	40% 657-967 (1624)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 18.5¢	$7.4	$13.6	+$6.2	78% 314-87 (401)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 19¢	$3.59	$12.43	+$8.85	43% 334-446 (780)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 46¢	$16.16	$11.94	-$4.21	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 64.1¢	$18.96	$9.36	+$0.24	54% 461-396 (857)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 35.7¢	$8.4	$8.01	-$0.39	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 31¢	$4.17	$6.19	+$6.73	66% 4093-2118 (6211)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 55¢	$3.85	$2.38	-$1.47	51% 80-78 (158)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.7	-$0.7	39% 1259-1997 (3256)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$140.95

Value

$145.29

PnL

+$4.33

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

Both legs:

Yes$91.6549.9¢+$5.7

No$49.3135¢-$1.37

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$43

PnL

+$13.21

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$24.46

Value

$33.41

PnL

+$8.95

Record

46%

317-371 (688)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.92

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$7.33

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$40.66

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$10.06

Record

51%

4598-4501 (9099)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.79

Value

$24.45

PnL

+$12.66

Record

41%

342-497 (839)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$18.05

Value

$15.03

PnL

-$3.02

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.6

Value

$14.86

PnL

-$0.75

Record

42%

338-475 (813)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.44

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$2.44

Record

40%

657-967 (1624)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$6.2

Record

78%

314-87 (401)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$8.85

Record

43%

334-446 (780)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$4.21

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.96

Value

$9.36

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$4.17

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$6.73

Record

66%

4093-2118 (6211)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$1.47

Record

51%

80-78 (158)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.7

Record

39%

1259-1997 (3256)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 82% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.