Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 11?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 94¢ · $422 held · ends Nov 11

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$422.46

Combined PnL

$4.18

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$100.24

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$5.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.07

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$0.87

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$337.06	$320.15	-$16.91	30% 246-584 (830)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.7¢	$249.27	$227.03	-$22.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.2¢	$87.79	$93.12	+$5.33
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69¢	$44.24	$43.61	-$0.64	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 64¢	$14.6	$18.92	+$4.32	50% 4584-4495 (9079)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$14.25	$15.21	+$0.97	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$16.88	$5.23	+$0.27	54% 401-336 (737)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.73	$4.91	+$0.18	66% 4092-2111 (6203)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 66¢	$4.62	$4.76	+$0.14	51% 80-78 (158)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.45	$4.2	-$0.25	45% 306-367 (673)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.4	+$0.05	39% 1250-1994 (3244)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.93	$2.07	-$0.87	82% 516-115 (631)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$337.06

Value

$320.15

PnL

-$16.91

Record

30%

246-584 (830)

Both legs:

No$249.2774.7¢-$22.24

Yes$87.7930.2¢+$5.33

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$44.24

Value

$43.61

PnL

-$0.64

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$4.32

Record

50%

4584-4495 (9079)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.25

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$0.97

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.88

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.18

Record

66%

4092-2111 (6203)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

80-78 (158)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.25

Record

45%

306-367 (673)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

1250-1994 (3244)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.87

Record

82%

516-115 (631)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.