Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$102.98
$1.41
98.1¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $62.91 | $63.86 | +$0.95 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $18.27 | $18.47 | +$0.2 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $8.57 | $8.69 | +$0.12 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $6.9 | $6.97 | +$0.08 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $4.93 | $4.98 | +$0.06 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$62.91
Value
$63.86
PnL
+$0.95
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$18.27
Value
$18.47
PnL
+$0.2
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$8.57
Value
$8.69
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.06
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.