Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 10?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 76¢ · $280 held · ends Nov 10

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$279.9

Combined PnL

$3.6

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 76¢

+25% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$276.75

Total Shares355

Combined PnL+$16.97

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.15

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$13.37

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 57.9¢	$194.95	$209.21	+$14.26	21% 132-485 (617)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$25.17	$23.57	-$1.6	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 66¢	$6.71	$7.53	+$0.82	31% 163-361 (524)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.4	$7.5	+$3.1	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$9.98	$7.32	-$2.66	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.93	$6.6	+$1.67	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.72	$5.22	+$0.49	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.4	$3.76	+$0.36	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.27	$3.7	+$0.43	28% 153-400 (553)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$16.52	$3.15	-$13.37	2% 12-662 (674)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$2.24	$2.35	+$0.11	30% 174-414 (588)

241532532432

Invested

$194.95

Value

$209.21

PnL

+$14.26

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.17

Value

$23.57

PnL

-$1.6

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$7.53

PnL

+$0.82

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$3.1

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$2.66

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$1.67

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.72

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.49

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.36

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.43

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.52

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$13.37

Record

12-662 (674)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.11

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.