Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on November 10?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 21¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 10

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$125.16

Combined PnL

-$1.33

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$45.68

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$3.59

No5 traders

Total Value$14.12

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$4.92

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 37.5¢	$50.02	$65.35	+$15.33	21% 132-485 (617)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.5¢	$29.69	$45.11	+$15.42
└ No leg	Noavg 44.2¢	$20.33	$20.24	-$0.09
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$38.11	$38.57	+$0.46	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$3.99	$7.11	+$3.13	51% 197-186 (383)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$8.6	$5.93	-$2.67	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6.8	$4.4	-$2.4	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.14	$2.24	+$0.1	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.77	$1	+$0.23	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$0.74	$0.55	-$0.18	34% 150-294 (444)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.02

Value

$65.35

PnL

+$15.33

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

Yes$29.6937.5¢+$15.42

No$20.3344.2¢-$0.09

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.11

Value

$38.57

PnL

+$0.46

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$3.13

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$2.67

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$2.4

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.77

Value

PnL

+$0.23

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.18

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.