Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 10?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $745 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$745.07

Combined PnL

-$23.49

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$745.07

Total Shares825

Combined PnL-$23.49

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94¢	$387.55	$365.31	-$22.24	21% 132-485 (617)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 94.5¢	$198.38	$186.68	-$11.69	2% 12-662 (674)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 88.9¢	$124	$84.06	+$1.01	51% 197-186 (383)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$55.69	$63.92	+$8.23	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$10.23	$10.25	+$0.02	31% 163-361 (524)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$9.68	$8.89	-$0.79	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$7.59	$7.82	+$0.23	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.09	$5.09	-$0.01	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$3.4	$4.6	+$1.19	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$3.39	$4.58	+$1.19	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$4.51	$3.87	-$0.64	36% 462-806 (1268)

241532532432

Invested

$387.55

Value

$365.31

PnL

-$22.24

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$198.38

Value

$186.68

PnL

-$11.69

Record

12-662 (674)

ghorrock

Invested

$124

Value

$84.06

PnL

+$1.01

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$55.69

Value

$63.92

PnL

+$8.23

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.23

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$0.79

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.19

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$1.19

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$0.64

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.