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NoYes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 50%
Total Value
$91.16
Combined PnL
-$33.53
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$91.16
Total Shares91
Combined PnL+$27.57
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares139
Combined PnL-$61.1
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $63.6 | $91.16 | +$27.57 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $61.1 | — | -$61.1 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$63.6
Value
$91.16
PnL
+$27.57
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
$61.1
Value
—
PnL
-$61.1
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x05bd536c...aa3113
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-november-1-2026-17c