Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.3K
$14.3
61.7¢ → 56.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 60.3¢ | $715.13 | $739.04 | +$23.91 | 20% 317-1301 (1618) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $283.38 | $293.61 | +$6.61 | 50% 650-641 (1291) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 65.3¢ | $254.37 | $196.36 | -$15.11 | 53% 6553-5771 (12324) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $32.17 | $32.76 | +$0.59 | 57% 13799-10572 (24371) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $14.2 | $12.2 | -$1.7 | 59% 1820-1267 (3087) |
IstarothInvested
$715.13
Value
$739.04
PnL
+$23.91
Record
20%
317-1301 (1618)
Invested
$283.38
Value
$293.61
PnL
+$6.61
Record
50%
650-641 (1291)
Invested
$254.37
Value
$196.36
PnL
-$15.11
Record
53%
6553-5771 (12324)
Invested
$32.17
Value
$32.76
PnL
+$0.59
Record
57%
13799-10572 (24371)
Invested
$14.2
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$1.7
Record
59%
1820-1267 (3087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.