Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 30?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$1.1K
$104.95
47.7¢ → 53¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $593.26 | $592.59 | +$8.45 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $419.49 | $517.36 | +$97.87 | 47% 626-712 (1338) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $7.43 | $6.06 | -$1.37 | 53% 6437-5635 (12072) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.