Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 29?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $113 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$113.43
-$8.52
96.2¢ → 97.3¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $59.52 | $55.38 | -$4.14 | 28% 167-425 (592) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $50.95 | $47.02 | -$3.93 | 32% 318-680 (998) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $7.73 | $6.98 | -$0.75 | 30% 264-608 (872) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $3.75 | $4.04 | +$0.29 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.