Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 29?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 46¢ · $968 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$968.47
-$98.06
48.4¢ → 45.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 48.5¢ | $504.87 | $434.29 | -$70.58 | 47% 615-700 (1315) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $466.53 | $353.42 | -$19.6 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.4¢ | $199.41 | $208.52 | -$5.89 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $158.22 | $144.9 | -$13.71 | |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $183.42 | $155.8 | -$27.62 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 51.8¢ | $113.94 | $24.96 | +$0.14 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
Invested
$504.87
Value
$434.29
PnL
-$70.58
Record
47%
615-700 (1315)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$466.53
Value
$353.42
PnL
-$19.6
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.42
Value
$155.8
PnL
-$27.62
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Invested
$113.94
Value
$24.96
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.