Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 55¢ · $642 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$642.01
$21.72
54.6¢ → 55¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $418.87 | $445.23 | +$26.36 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 62¢ | $156.28 | $138.64 | -$3.78 | 55% 266-222 (488) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 55.7¢ | $48.98 | $48.4 | -$0.58 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.8¢ | $22.99 | $9.74 | -$0.28 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
Invested
$418.87
Value
$445.23
PnL
+$26.36
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
Invested
$156.28
Value
$138.64
PnL
-$3.78
Record
55%
266-222 (488)
Invested
$48.98
Value
$48.4
PnL
-$0.58
Record
60%
1599-1049 (2648)
Invested
$22.99
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.