Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 47¢ · $370 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$370.19
$5.12
46.1¢ → 46.9¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $200.14 | $205.26 | +$5.12 | 61% 1522-962 (2484) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $184.94 | $146.2 | -$8.36 | 33% 273-556 (829) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.7¢ | $84.4 | $77.59 | -$7.61 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.4¢ | $69.36 | $68.61 | -$0.75 | |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $18.73 | $18.73 | +$0 | 55% 215-175 (390) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.