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YesYesYesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on November 8?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$68.02
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares749
Combined PnL-$68.02
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $66.02 | — | -$66.02 | 20% 967-3780 (4747) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 50% 9315-9358 (18673) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6185-7387 (13572) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6881-8137 (15018) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3337-11823 (15160) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$66.02
Value
—
PnL
-$66.02
Record
20%
967-3780 (4747)
0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
50%
9315-9358 (18673)
0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6185-7387 (13572)
0X
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6881-8137 (15018)
LU
luciebot<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3337-11823 (15160)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1c37a2a5...81a8e3
Slug
highest-temperature-in-paris-on-november-8-2026-15corhigher