Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Yes 100%
$0
-$68.03
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $66.02 | — | -$66.02 | 20% 967-3780 (4747) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2.01 | — | -$2.01 | 50% 9315-9358 (18673) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 5541-7239 (12780) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 70% 16761-7351 (24112) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3337-11823 (15160) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6626-7759 (14385) |
Invested
$66.02
Value
—
PnL
-$66.02
Record
20%
967-3780 (4747)
Invested
$2.01
Value
—
PnL
-$2.01
Record
50%
9315-9358 (18673)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
5541-7239 (12780)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
16761-7351 (24112)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3337-11823 (15160)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6626-7759 (14385)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
CTRYes — $0
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
CTRYes — $0
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $0
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
CTRYes — $0
luciebot
No — $0
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
CTRYes — $0