Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 7?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $49 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$49.37

Combined PnL

-$43.05

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$47.81

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.92

Total Shares918

Combined PnL-$43.24

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$37.61	$37.67	+$0.06	36% 1176-2127 (3303)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$10	$10.14	+$0.14	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$42.17	$0.89	-$41.28	37% 903-1557 (2460)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$1.3	$0.02	-$1.28	17% 4526-22231 (26757)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$0.7	$0.01	-$0.69	42% 2420-3372 (5792)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$37.61

Value

$37.67

PnL

+$0.06

Record

36%

1176-2127 (3303)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.17

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$41.28

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.28

Record

17%

4526-22231 (26757)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.69

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.