Will the highest temperature in Paris be 5°C on November 7?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $601 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$601.07
-$43.31
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $599.32 | $599.4 | +$0.1 | 97% 476-14 (490) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $42.17 | $0.89 | -$41.28 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $1.5 | $0.12 | -$1.44 | 17% 4526-22231 (26757) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $0.7 | $0.01 | -$0.69 | 42% 2420-3372 (5792) |
Invested
$599.32
Value
$599.4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
97%
476-14 (490)
Invested
$42.17
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$41.28
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.44
Record
17%
4526-22231 (26757)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.69
Record
42%
2420-3372 (5792)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.