Will the highest temperature in Paris be 4°C or below on November 7?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$200.78
-$42.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $199.8 | $199.9 | +$0.1 | 97% 447-13 (460) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $41.37 | $0.84 | -$40.52 | 37% 888-1513 (2401) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $1.3 | $0.02 | -$1.29 | 17% 4523-22225 (26748) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $0.7 | $0.01 | -$0.69 | 42% 2412-3345 (5757) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yes | $0 | $0 | -$0.27 | 39% 1294-2033 (3327) |
Invested
$199.8
Value
$199.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
97%
447-13 (460)
Invested
$41.37
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$40.52
Record
37%
888-1513 (2401)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.29
Record
17%
4523-22225 (26748)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.69
Record
42%
2412-3345 (5757)
Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.27
Record
39%
1294-2033 (3327)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.